Western media are daily warning investors and the world that China’s economy is ‘facing headwinds’ or slowing, and/decelerating. All the while they ignore metrics which defy their narrative. The primary metric used to support the story that China’s economy is slowing is a principle called regression towards the mean. The narrative of China’s slowing economy by trusted news organizations in the west serves as fodder for the regular guy on the street to imagine a poor and suffering Chinese population, despite China’s insane successes in building a more economically equal society which looks after its least well-off citizenry. Taking a look at western ‘economists’ stories on China and the data points wherein their story breaks down is illuminating.

Many articles harp on China’s ‘slowing’ economy without giving clear context to their readers about the nature of the math which necessitates that process. A Reuters headline on October 15th, 2024 was entitled “China’s economy set to grow 4.8% in 2024, missing target: Reuters poll” emphasizing the ‘missing’ of China’s official target of ‘about 5%.’ This is a distortion for two reasons. The first, 4.8% is about 5%, and as of January 5th, writing this article, the GDP growth of China has been revised upward to 4.9%, which is even closer to being ‘about 5%.’ Another example, Nikkei published an article on December 26th, 2024 “China’s GDP growth to decelerate to 4.4% in 2025, say economists.” The term decelerate misleads non-economists, but not people in the know. As China’s economy continues to add the same growth each year it has for the last two decades.

This reporting by economists sour on China is a product of one of three things. The reporters and economists are just repeating the common talking points of others in their echo chamber. One. Or, they are attempting to mislead people who don’t understand math. Two. The final explanation is that these news periodicals themselves don’t understand the math. Any of these explanations is damning. So, there’s little in the way of forgiving their poor reporting. So, what’s really happening here?

The reduction of the percentage of GDP growth of China’s economy each year is a mathematical certainty by virtue of a process called ‘regressing to the mean.’ Despite the fact that China’s economic growth continues to add a similar total new output each year, owing to China’s economy being so much larger than before, the total decreases as a percentage only. Nothing is actually ‘slowing’ at all. China’s economy continues to add trillions of RMB to its economic total each year at the same pace it has for years, and decades.

It’s thusly, that the uninitiated are decieved and believe China’s economy is ‘slowing’ despite no slowing of any kind. So, what’s actually going on in China’s economy if the western reports on China are of no use? Let’s look at some inconvenient metrics for their ‘slowing’ narrative.

It should matter most how much money people have to live their lives. So let’s take a look at ‘China Urban Households Disposable Income per Capita.” This is the amount of money people can spend after they pay their necessary bills. This has been steadily increasing by about the same rate as it has for the last decade. China’s economy is delivering better lives for its people every year, at roughly the same rate as it has for the 21st century to now. Nothing is ‘slowing.’

China and the USA are roughly the same size economies. The only two in the world of relative size and scale. While the US economy is larger in nominal terms, China’s economy is larger by purchasing power parity, which is far more accurate. So, their GDP growth rates might be similar? No. In fact, China’s economy grew by MORE THAN TWICE the rate of the United States’ economy in 2024. The numbers are still tentative. Bloomberg reported China grew by ‘about 5%,’ mirroring China’s goal for 2024.

As we can clearly see from just a couple of obvious and largely ignored metrics, China’s economy is just fine. Furthermore, China’s economy is leaving that of the US behind and in the dust. So, we are forced to ask ourselves: do western economists not understand China’s economic growth? Or, do they just want their readers to not understand China’s economic growth?